Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 11 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.78%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.12%, STOXX -0.21%, CAC +0.18%, DAX +0.17%, IBEX -0.56%) and positive U.S. markets (DOW +0.11%, S&P +0.03%, NASDAQ +0.30%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index outperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+1.42%) with gains in Sadovaya, Kernel, Coal Energy, KSG Agro and IMC driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,590,841 shares), Westa (395,473 shares), Ovostar (88,256 shares), Kernel (55,267 shares) and Agroton (34,714 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45892.07 (+0.78%)

WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.96 (+1.42%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  90.00 (-4.10%)

Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  68.70 (+4.09%)

Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.12 (-8.04%)

Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  56.70 (-1.31%)

Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.70 (+1.36%)

KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (+2.22%)

Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.30 (-1.38%)

KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)

Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.43 (+4.00%)

Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.08 (-15.56%)

Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.73 (-1.35%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another cent on Monday, closing at 0.61 EURO (-1.611%).  Doha is finished and the predictable outcome occurred - no real developments just a weak poster board agreement with everyone kicking the can for hard discussions in 2015... which in market terms is another lifetime.  Kyoto Protocol still exists in the "true up period" when emitters engage in 2-3 years of horse trading to squeeze whatever Eurocents they can from the market before submitting their final emissions offset trading math to teacher.  There is the flimsy "Kyoto Protocol 2" which to be honest is nothing more than a weak and redundant version of the EU ETS, allowing the EU to keep receiving cheap credits into their regulatory system until the rest of the world catches up to their leadership on climate change issues.  But that will take some time and to be honest it could happen later than 2015.  In the meantime we've got a UN program mushing its way through on crutches - until a major development happens in the USA or China or Japan to create real demand for Kyoto offsets.  There is still action in the market but it's a race to the bottom as prices slip towards zero, the UN offset market is waiting for a serendipitous second chance before the inevitable happens.

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 4 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.62%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.08%, STOXX +0.28%, CAC +0.26%, DAX +0.40%, IBEX -0.57%) and in contrast to red U.S. markets (DOW -0.46%, S&P -0.47%, NASDAQ -0.27%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.27%) for the day with gains in Kernel, Ovostar and Coal Energy driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Kernel (208,081 shares), Sadovaya Group (127,219 shares), Westa (80,491 shares) and Agroton (37,732 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45293.43 (+0.62%)

WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.95 (+0.27%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  85.00 (+2.22%)

Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  71.10 (+4.56%)

Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.24 (-11.07%)

Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.15 (-4.75%)

Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  13.75 (unch)

KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.50 (-3.67%)

Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.31 (-4.73%)

KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  25.80 (-1.53%)

Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.28 (+0.78%)

Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.89 (-0.53%)

Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.79 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another 8 cents on Monday, closing at 0.64 EURO (-11.11%).  Six days days into Doha and we're well into the expected deadlock.  At some point prior to the conference's end on 7 December - which is Pearl Harbor Day in the USA - the country representatives will try to announce some form of "agreement to agree" meant to demonstrate the carbon emissions from all the flights to the conference weren't wasted.  If this happens, there should be a bounce in the market before they return to their downward spiral.  There's a fundamental supply and demand issue.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There is no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down and international failure to agree on meaningful coordinated greenhouse gas reductions in the short or medium terms.  The trend seems to be for countries to focus on fixing their economies and discussing smaller localized emissions reductions efforts which could become linked (or not) in future times.

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Friday 30 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.41%), in line with green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +1.15%, STOXX +1.37%, CAC +1.53%, DAX +0.78%, IBEX +1.74%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +0.28%, S&P +0.43%, NASDAQ +0.68%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.06%) for the day with gains in Sadovaya Group, Agroton, Kernel, Ovostar, Coal Energy and KDM Shipping driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,028,958 shares), Westa (881,044 shares), KSG Agro (225,140 shares), Kernel (61,225 shares) and Agroton (39,818 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44787.84 (+0.41%)

WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  661.22 (+0.06%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  85.00 (+0.77%)

Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  68.20 (+0.96%)

Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.50 (+3.65%)

Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  59.40 (-1.00%)

Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.49 (-0.07%)

KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.04 (-1.08%)

Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.45 (-2.83%)

KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.15 (+0.19%)

Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.34 (+0.29%)

Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.87 (+3.89%)

Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.79 (-22.55%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another 2 cents on Thursday, closing at 0.73 EURO (-2.67%).  Four days in, Doha appears locked in predictable decision paralysis - with more emphasis focused on what is not happening rather than what is happening.  At some point prior to the conference's end on 7 December - which is Pearl Harbor Day in the USA - the country representatives will whip some framework "agreement to agree" out of the squabbling and this agreement will give a quick bounce back into the market.  But more likely than not, it will be a dead cat bounce.  From the Doha evidence thus far, major emitters continue to lack the political will to address climate change in a meaningful way or to put concrete cooperative steps down to paper.  The USA and Russia have sent early signals they are not interested to set forth firm commitments on their sides until they see every other country making similar commitments - essentially filibustering.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There will be no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down.