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Monday, November 19, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Monday 19 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed slightly down on the day (-0.17%), better than the main European markets (FTSE -1.27%, STOXX -1.40%, CAC -1.21%, DAX -1.32%, IBEX -1.39%) but worse than the U.S. markets (DOW +0.37%, S&P +0.48%, NASDAQ +0.57%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they lost ground alongside main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-1.55%) for the day with gains in KDM Shipping and Coal Energy unable to offset red and white screens among other index names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (634,096 shares), Kernel (191,346 shares) and Westa International Scientific Group (131,073 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43772.60 (-0.17%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  644.5 (-1.55%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  77.50 (-10.92%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  65.90 (-0.15%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.60 (-2.75%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.30 (-0.52%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.75 (-1.67%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.25 (-9.13%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.35 (-1.37%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.10 (+4.63%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.50 (+0.44%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.99 (-22.27%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.00 (unch)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price consolidated after several days of losses to 0.87 EURO (+19.18%).  The spread is widening between CERs and ERUs by 6 Eurocents, as cheap ERUs continuously enter the market and pull CER prices down with them.  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long and participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  In the meantime expect the CER and ERU volume to increase between now and year end, coupled with even cheaper forms of UN offsets, pushing prices down and making a rally difficult.  We are now 5 trading days from the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha, so we could see some optimism prior to the inevitable post-conference disappointment... whether that short-term optimism is sufficient to offset a growing supply glut and gives a temporary bounce remains to be seen.

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