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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Thursday 13 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up (+0.43%), in line with green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.35%, STOXX +0.24%, CAC +0.01%, DAX +0.33%, IBEX +0.83%) and mixed U.S. markets (DOW -0.02%, S&P +0.04%, NASDAQ -0.28%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index underperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-0.61%) with gains in Ovostar, Milkiland and Agroton unable to carry the day.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (653,935 shares), Westa (75,829 shares) and Kernel (45,978 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 46717.719 (+0.43%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  667.42 (-0.61%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  93.00 (+1.64%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  69.30 (-1.00%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.50 (+0.24%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  58.50 (-0.34%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.53 (-2.88%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (unch)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.26 (+0.42%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.40 (unch)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.97 (-1.01%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.71 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER continued its downwards march on Wednesday, closing at 0.43 EURO (-6.52%).  Trading desks across the world are adopting 3-step strategies:
  • Step 1:  Carbon slides falls towards zero after a toothless Kyoto Protocol Conference of Parties at the end of 2012.
  • Step 2:  ????????????
  • Step 3:  Profit.
You could see this coming, no surprises here.  Only the nagging question of how to solve step 2.  While there is no way to recover project costs at today's prices, from a trading perspective UN offsets represent cheap paper to squeeze Eurocents on swaps and options while there is still volatility in the market.  So this is what is happening now, not just in the private sector but governments also.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Wednesday 12 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up (+1.36%), in line with green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.06%, STOXX +1.08%, CAC +0.94%, DAX +0.78%, IBEX +1.49%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +0.60%, S&P +0.65%, NASDAQ +1.18%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+1.90%) with gains in Agroton, Astarta, Kernel, IMC and Ovostar driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,032,879 shares), Kernel (65,154 shares) and Westa (60,615 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 46517.46 (+1.36%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  671.51 (+1.90%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  91.50 (+1.67%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  70.00 (+1.89%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.48 (+4.43%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  58.70 (+3.53%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.99 (+1.85%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (unch)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.20 (-0.70%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.40 (-0.26%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.99 (-4.33%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.71 (-2.74%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER went into a screaming tailspin on Tuesday, closing at 0.46 EURO (-24.59%).  We've gone through the predicted pattern of events:  Doha is finished with no wide international agreement, the UN offset market now exists mostly for PR until countries come together again to reduce the core problem of climate change in a unified manner sometime during the next 3 to 7 years... so now it's a race to the bottom.  You could see this coming so no surprises here, only disappointment.  There will be some trading action during the true-up period but it seems that national green tariffs and subsidized renewable energy measures/incentives from governments will need to overtake carbon credits as the driver to start new projects.  At least until such time that carbon credits become valuable enough to be relevant again.  Until that time, UN offsets are just cheap paper for traders to earn money on volume swaps and options.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 11 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.78%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.12%, STOXX -0.21%, CAC +0.18%, DAX +0.17%, IBEX -0.56%) and positive U.S. markets (DOW +0.11%, S&P +0.03%, NASDAQ +0.30%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index outperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+1.42%) with gains in Sadovaya, Kernel, Coal Energy, KSG Agro and IMC driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,590,841 shares), Westa (395,473 shares), Ovostar (88,256 shares), Kernel (55,267 shares) and Agroton (34,714 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45892.07 (+0.78%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.96 (+1.42%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  90.00 (-4.10%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  68.70 (+4.09%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.12 (-8.04%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  56.70 (-1.31%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.70 (+1.36%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (+2.22%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.30 (-1.38%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.43 (+4.00%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.08 (-15.56%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.73 (-1.35%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another cent on Monday, closing at 0.61 EURO (-1.611%).  Doha is finished and the predictable outcome occurred - no real developments just a weak poster board agreement with everyone kicking the can for hard discussions in 2015... which in market terms is another lifetime.  Kyoto Protocol still exists in the "true up period" when emitters engage in 2-3 years of horse trading to squeeze whatever Eurocents they can from the market before submitting their final emissions offset trading math to teacher.  There is the flimsy "Kyoto Protocol 2" which to be honest is nothing more than a weak and redundant version of the EU ETS, allowing the EU to keep receiving cheap credits into their regulatory system until the rest of the world catches up to their leadership on climate change issues.  But that will take some time and to be honest it could happen later than 2015.  In the meantime we've got a UN program mushing its way through on crutches - until a major development happens in the USA or China or Japan to create real demand for Kyoto offsets.  There is still action in the market but it's a race to the bottom as prices slip towards zero, the UN offset market is waiting for a serendipitous second chance before the inevitable happens.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 4 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.62%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.08%, STOXX +0.28%, CAC +0.26%, DAX +0.40%, IBEX -0.57%) and in contrast to red U.S. markets (DOW -0.46%, S&P -0.47%, NASDAQ -0.27%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.27%) for the day with gains in Kernel, Ovostar and Coal Energy driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Kernel (208,081 shares), Sadovaya Group (127,219 shares), Westa (80,491 shares) and Agroton (37,732 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45293.43 (+0.62%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.95 (+0.27%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  85.00 (+2.22%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  71.10 (+4.56%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.24 (-11.07%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.15 (-4.75%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  13.75 (unch)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.50 (-3.67%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.31 (-4.73%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  25.80 (-1.53%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.28 (+0.78%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.89 (-0.53%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.79 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another 8 cents on Monday, closing at 0.64 EURO (-11.11%).  Six days days into Doha and we're well into the expected deadlock.  At some point prior to the conference's end on 7 December - which is Pearl Harbor Day in the USA - the country representatives will try to announce some form of "agreement to agree" meant to demonstrate the carbon emissions from all the flights to the conference weren't wasted.  If this happens, there should be a bounce in the market before they return to their downward spiral.  There's a fundamental supply and demand issue.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There is no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down and international failure to agree on meaningful coordinated greenhouse gas reductions in the short or medium terms.  The trend seems to be for countries to focus on fixing their economies and discussing smaller localized emissions reductions efforts which could become linked (or not) in future times.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Friday 30 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.41%), in line with green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +1.15%, STOXX +1.37%, CAC +1.53%, DAX +0.78%, IBEX +1.74%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +0.28%, S&P +0.43%, NASDAQ +0.68%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.06%) for the day with gains in Sadovaya Group, Agroton, Kernel, Ovostar, Coal Energy and KDM Shipping driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,028,958 shares), Westa (881,044 shares), KSG Agro (225,140 shares), Kernel (61,225 shares) and Agroton (39,818 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44787.84 (+0.41%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  661.22 (+0.06%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  85.00 (+0.77%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  68.20 (+0.96%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.50 (+3.65%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  59.40 (-1.00%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.49 (-0.07%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.04 (-1.08%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.45 (-2.83%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.15 (+0.19%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.34 (+0.29%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.87 (+3.89%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.79 (-22.55%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another 2 cents on Thursday, closing at 0.73 EURO (-2.67%).  Four days in, Doha appears locked in predictable decision paralysis - with more emphasis focused on what is not happening rather than what is happening.  At some point prior to the conference's end on 7 December - which is Pearl Harbor Day in the USA - the country representatives will whip some framework "agreement to agree" out of the squabbling and this agreement will give a quick bounce back into the market.  But more likely than not, it will be a dead cat bounce.  From the Doha evidence thus far, major emitters continue to lack the political will to address climate change in a meaningful way or to put concrete cooperative steps down to paper.  The USA and Russia have sent early signals they are not interested to set forth firm commitments on their sides until they see every other country making similar commitments - essentially filibustering.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There will be no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Thursday 29 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in negative territory (-0.11%), below most of the main European markets (FTSE +0.06%, STOXX +0.13%, CAC +0.37%, DAX +0.15%, IBEX -0.33%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +0.83%, S&P +0.79%, NASDAQ +0.81%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index outperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.52%) for the day with gains in Agroton, KSG Agro, Milkiland, Kernel, IMC and Ovostar driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (872,756 shares), Westa (157,240 shares) and Kernel (62,392 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44605.42 (-0.11%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  660.81 (+0.52%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  84.35 (+0.12%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  67.55 (+2.04%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.13 (+6.07%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  60.00 (-2.68%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.50 (+0.35%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.16 (+4.30%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.90 (+2.58%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (-1.14%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.31 (-0.39%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.80 (-10.00%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.02 (-0.39%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell 6 cents on Wednesday, closing at 0.75 EURO (-7.41%).  The Doha conference has fallen into the predictable impasse of arguing.  Russia has declared it won't agree to new emissions capping commitments under Kyoto, while the USA continues to filibuster on international cooperation as in previous years.  From the Doha evidence thus far, major emitters continue to lack the political will to address climate change in a meaningful way and prefer to compartmentalize the issue inside the broader topic of trade and commercial competitiveness.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There will be no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down.  The fundamentals exist for a tough final few weeks for carbon prices this year, barring the occasional dead cat bounce... unless there's a game changing market decision somewhere.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Wednesday 28 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed positively for the day (+0.12%), generally in line with the main European markets (FTSE +0.22%, STOXX +0.04%, CAC +0.03%, DAX +0.55%, IBEX -0.14%) and above the U.S. markets (DOW -0.69%, S&P -0.52%, NASDAQ -0.30%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index outperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+2.51%) for the day with gains in Ovostar, Westa, KSG Agro, Astarta, Kernel, Milkiland and IMC driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,268,637 shares), Kernel (219,691 shares) and Westa International Scientific Group (173,696 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44655.24 (+0.12%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  657.42 (+2.51%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  84.25 (+6.65%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  66.20 (+2.00%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.55 (-2.35%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  61.65 (+4.49%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.45 (+1.05%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.70 (+4.90%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.50 (+1.64%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.40 (-1.82%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.35 (unch)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.00 (-6.98%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.03 (+6.19%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER firmed 2 cents on Tuesday, closing at 0.81 EURO (+2.53%).  As expected, traders are try to squeeze whatever optimism they can from the market during Doha, before the gloom sets back in.  In America, Obama has already sent the signal he's not aggressive on global climate change cooperation by signing a bill that shields the country's airlines from carbon offsetting laws in the EU.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market and it looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  This looks to be a good week to sell carbon especially if the Doha conference ends inconclusively, as prior similar conference outcomes would predict.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 27 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed positively for the day (+0.37%), better than the main European markets (FTSE -0.56%, STOXX -0.57%, CAC -0.79%, DAX -0.23%, IBEX -0.44%) and the U.S. markets (DOW -0.33%, S&P -0.20%, NASDAQ +0.33%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.37%) for the day with gains in Sadovaya, IMC, KSG Agro, Milkiland, Astarta, Coal Energy and Ovostar driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,645,739 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (109,296 shares), Kernel (28,068 shares) and Ovostar (16,786 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44602.83 (+0.37%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  641.32 (+0.37%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  79.00 (+1.28%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  64.90 (-1.96%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.78 (-1.71%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  59.00 (+2.08%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.30 (+4.38%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.20 (+3.34%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.25 (+2.35%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.89 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.35 (+1.47%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.15 (+17.49%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.97 (-3.00%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER lost 5 cents on Monday, closing at 0.79 EURO (-5.95%).  As expected, initial news is that nothing tangible is developing in Doha either for Kyoto or for Europe's ETS.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market while countries remain firmly divided over what to do with excess AAU supply in future years.  This has been the state of the market for the last 2 years.  If Doha is similar to conferences before it, we will see the countries try to reach some sort of loose consensus to "agree to agree" to something by 2015 or 2020.  But there likely will be no real descriptive substance to the consensus.  If this happens, then we can expect carbon prices to fall throughout the middle of the Doha conference as it appears less and less productive, then bounce near the end of the conference when countries and conference organizers rush to publicize the "agreement" as a positive development.  The bounce will be short-lived after analysts have a chance to review the actual text of the agreement and realize it says nothing new and represents no actual progress, it only kicks the can down the road and such can kicking could extend beyond 2015 or 2020.  If the USA were to stand up in Doha and agree to firm commitments and link it's emissions reduction efforts to the rest of the world, then we'd really have something.  But this does not have high political likelihood as climate change is still a "new" and "controversial" topic in America as we enter 2013, across both Democrat and Republican political parties.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Monday 26 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed positively for the day (+0.71%), in line with the main European markets (FTSE +0.49%, STOXX +0.87%, CAC +0.87%, DAX +0.89%, IBEX +0.43%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +1.35%, S&P +1.30%, NASDAQ +1.38%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index performed concurrent to the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.70%) for the day with gains in Kernel, KSG Agro, KDM Shipping and Astarta carrying the day.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,348,740 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (66,339 shares) and Kernel (32,259 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44436.63 (+0.71%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  638.95 (+0.70%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  78.00 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  66.20 (+3.52%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.95 (-0.50%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.80 (+0.09%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  13.70 (-4.86%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  9.87 (+2.28%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.90 (-3.87%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.89 (-2.20%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.20 (-5.56%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.83 (-3.68%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.00 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER firmed 2 cents on Friday, closing at 0.84 EURO (+2.44%).  Trading seemed to be mostly short covering and pre-Doha optimism.  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long.  Today is the first day of the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha, but barring a miracle it looks to become an unresolved disappointment like similar conferences before it.  It seems like trading regimes are migrating from global to regional mechanisms, each with their own bilateral integration process.  Without meaningful commitments from current Kyoto countries like Russia and China, the market awaits the USA to step up.  But that political process has been frustratingly slow as America's mainstream media and government -- until Hurricane Sandy -- fairly could be referred to as loud climate change skeptics.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Friday 23 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed down again for the day (-0.22%), below the main European markets (FTSE +0.68%, STOXX +0.61%, CAC +0.60%, DAX +0.84%, IBEX +0.90%); the U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving.  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index outperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.54%) for the day with gains in Sadovaya KSG Agro and Astarta carrying the day.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (2,868,589 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (160,316 shares) and Kernel (102,673 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44121.53 (-0.22%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  634.52 (+0.54%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  78.00 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  63.95 (unch)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.09 (-0.89%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.75 (+1.49%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.40 (unch)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  9.65 (+7.22%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.50 (-0.32%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.31 (-2.45%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.80 (-1.82%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.90 (+27.52%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.00 (-0.99%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell again yesterday, closing at 0.82 EURO (-1.20%).  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long.  We are now 1 trading day from the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha (Homer Simpson would say "D'oh!-a").  However any effective steps to constrain lopsided supply could take several more months or in worst case years to materialize.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Thursday 22 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed on the negative side for the second day (-0.50%), in contrast to the main European markets (FTSE +0.07%, STOXX +0.40%, CAC +0.44%, DAX +0.16%, IBEX +0.34%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +0.38%, S&P +0.23%, NASDAQ +0.34%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed in line with the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-0.93%) for the day with gains in Milkiland and KSG Agro unable to offset otherwise red and white screens for weighted names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,031,712 shares), Kernel (163,460 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (81,887 shares) and Agroton (20,430 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44218.33 (-0.50%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  631.09 (-0.93%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  78.00 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  63.95 (-2.07%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.09 (-0.39%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  56.90 (unch)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.40 (-0.76%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  9.00 (+0.56%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.55 (+3.74%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.97 (-0.07%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.00 (-1.35%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.49 (-12.87%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.01 (-0.98%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER consolidated 2 Eurocents after falling 7.95% the previous day, closing at 0.83 EURO (+2.47%).  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long.  We are now 2 trading days from the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha, however any hopes regarding supply constraint decisions could take a long time to materialize.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Wednesday 21 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed on the positive side for the second day (+0.16%), in line with the main European markets (FTSE +0.18%, STOXX +0.58%, CAC +0.65%, DAX +0.69%, IBEX +0.19%) and most U.S. markets (DOW -0.06%, S&P +0.07%, NASDAQ +0.02%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they underperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-1.25%) for the day with gains in IMC unable to offset otherwise red and white screens for weighted names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (463,123 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (103,889 shares) and Kernel (36,573 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44438.93 (+0.16%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  637.04 (-1.25%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  78.00 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  65.30 (-1.58%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.13 (-3.52%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  56.90 (unch)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.51 (+0.07%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  8.95 (-3.66%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.99 (-0.07%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.99 (-0.41%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.15 (-4.70%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.71 (-6.56%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.02 (-1.92%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price fell to 0.81 EURO (-7.95%).  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long.  We are now 3 trading days from the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha, and it seems we're witnessing some optimism prior to the inevitable post-conference disappointment.  Participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 20 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up on the day (+1.36%), in line with the main European markets (FTSE +2.36%, STOXX +2.80%, CAC +2.93%, DAX +2.49%, IBEX +2.31%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +1.65%, S&P +1.99%, NASDAQ +2.21%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they improved alongside main Warsaw equities index, closing slightly up (+0.09%) for the day with gains in Milkiland, Westa, Coal Energy, Kernel and Ovostar carrying the day.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (944,102 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (117,112 shares), Kernel (115,134 shares) and Astarta (35,305 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 44369.05 (+1.36%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  645.08 (+0.09%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  78.00 (+0.65%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  66.35 (+0.68%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.50 (-0.94%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  56.90 (-0.70%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.50 (-1.69%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  9.29 (-9.37%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.00 (+4.53%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.70 (+1.74%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.99 (-8.04%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.04 (+4.00%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price consolidated another Eurocent to 0.88 EURO (+1.15%).  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long.  Participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  We are now 4 trading days from the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha, and it seems we're witnessing some optimism prior to the inevitable post-conference disappointment.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Monday 19 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed slightly down on the day (-0.17%), better than the main European markets (FTSE -1.27%, STOXX -1.40%, CAC -1.21%, DAX -1.32%, IBEX -1.39%) but worse than the U.S. markets (DOW +0.37%, S&P +0.48%, NASDAQ +0.57%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they lost ground alongside main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-1.55%) for the day with gains in KDM Shipping and Coal Energy unable to offset red and white screens among other index names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (634,096 shares), Kernel (191,346 shares) and Westa International Scientific Group (131,073 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43772.60 (-0.17%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  644.5 (-1.55%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  77.50 (-10.92%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  65.90 (-0.15%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.60 (-2.75%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.30 (-0.52%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.75 (-1.67%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.25 (-9.13%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.35 (-1.37%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.10 (+4.63%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.50 (+0.44%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.99 (-22.27%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.00 (unch)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price consolidated after several days of losses to 0.87 EURO (+19.18%).  The spread is widening between CERs and ERUs by 6 Eurocents, as cheap ERUs continuously enter the market and pull CER prices down with them.  With constant new ERU and CER supply hitting everyday, the market remains significantly long and participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  In the meantime expect the CER and ERU volume to increase between now and year end, coupled with even cheaper forms of UN offsets, pushing prices down and making a rally difficult.  We are now 5 trading days from the Kyoto Protocol conference in Doha, so we could see some optimism prior to the inevitable post-conference disappointment... whether that short-term optimism is sufficient to offset a growing supply glut and gives a temporary bounce remains to be seen.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Friday 17 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up on the day (+0.05%), outperforming most of the main European markets (FTSE -0.77%, STOXX -0.45%, CAC -0.52%, DAX -0.82%, IBEX +0.29%) and U.S. markets (DOW -0.23%, S&P -0.16%, NASDAQ -0.35%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed below the main Warsaw equities index and more in line with global indexes, closing down (-1.09%) for the day with gains in Westa, Kernel and KSG Agro unable to offset red and white screens among other index names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (158,242 shares) and Kernel (57,420 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43845.94 (+0.05%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  654.64 (-1.09%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  87.00 (-7.45%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  66.00 (+1.54%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  10.90 (-3.63%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.60 (-3.03%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.00 (-1.64%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.28 (+1.26%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.55 (-3.00%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  25.90 (unch%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.45 (-2.55%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.56 (-1.16%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.00 (+2.04%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price fell again to 0.73 EURO (-5.90%).  The market remains significantly long and participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  In the meantime expect more CER and ERU volume to hit the market between now and year end, coupled with even cheaper forms of UN offsets, pushing prices down and making a rally difficult.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Thursday 15 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up on the day (+0.49%), outperforming the main European markets (FTSE -1.11%, STOXX -0.81%, CAC -0.89%, DAX -0.94%, IBEX -0.27%) and U.S. markets (DOW -1.45%, S&P -1.39%, NASDAQ -1.29%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed in line with the main Warsaw equities index, closing slightly up (+0.05%) for the day with gains in Kernel, IMC, Agroton and Sadovaya driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (216,205 shares), Kernel (105,519 shares) and Astarta (33,550 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43825.87 (+0.49%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  661.87 (+0.05%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  94.00 (-1.47%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  65.00 (+2.36%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  11.31 (+1.53%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  59.40 (-1.00%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.25 (+1.67%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.14 (-2.71%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.00 (-4.46%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  25.90 (-3.90%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.75 (-5.24%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.59 (+0.39%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.98 (-6.67%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price improved to 0.77 EURO (-6.10%).  The market remains significantly long and participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  Carbon prices are down 30% over the past two days.  The EU has outlined a 6 point plan to try and address the supply/demand imbalance in the EU ETS looking forward.  The points are:  deepening EU emission cuts, cancelling permits, extending emissions trading to new sectors, limiting or banning certain UN offsets and establishing a price management mechanism.  It's all talk at this point so we will see how fast and how effective some/all of these measures may be, in the future.  In the meantime expect more CER and ERU volume to hit the market between now and year end, pushing prices down and making a rally difficult.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 13 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up on the day (+0.37%), compared to flat/bearish results in the European markets (FTSE -0.04%, STOXX -0.25%, CAC -0.35%, DAX +0.07%, IBEX -0.90%) and U.S. markets (DOW +0.00%, S&P +0.01%, NASDAQ -0.02%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed below the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-1.02%) for the day with gains in IMC, Sadovaya, Coal Energy and Ovostar unable to offset white and red screens among other names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (182,537 shares), Sadovaya Group (73,448 shares) and Kernel (50,418 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43368.99 (+0.37%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  661.18 (-1.02%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  95.75 (+0.31%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  63.25 (-1.79%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  11.03 (-0.99%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  60.00 (-2.60%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.35 (+5.79%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (-1.03%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.55 (unch)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.90 (-0.37%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 12.44 (+0.32%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.56 (+3.64%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.05 (-0.94%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price improved to 1.10 EURO (+10.00%).  The market remains significantly long and participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  The European Commission has proposed back-loading 900 million EUAs from 2013, and carbon got a jolt from this news.  However back-loading is not the same as removal, so trading volume remains driven by swaps and hedging; real new demand does not exist to meet continuous rolling supply growth through year end.  The only thing one can say about carbon right now is it's quite cheap.  But today's cheap price can become tomorrow's expensive price, as we've seen since August 2011. The market badly needs regulatory support.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Monday 12 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed down on the day (-0.50%), compared to mixed results in the European markets (FTSE -0.11%, STOXX +0.03%, CAC +0.47%, DAX -0.58%, IBEX +0.16%) and rebounding U.S. markets (DOW +0.03%, S&P +0.17%, NASDAQ +0.32%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed slightly below the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-0.92%) for the day with gains in Kernel unable to offset otherwise white and red screens among other names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Kernel (482,582 shares), Westa International Scientific Group (117,536 shares) and Sadovaya Group (62,538 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43210.47 (-0.50%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  667.96 (-0.92%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  95.45 (-0.31%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  64.40 (+0.08%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  11.14 (-0.27%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  61.60 (-1.60%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  14.51 (-5.53%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.62 (-0.17%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.55 (-1.27%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.00 (-0.37%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 12.40 (unch)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.47 (-3.89%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.06 (-3.64%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price consolidated to 1.00 EURO (+4.17%).  The market remains significantly long and participants seem to be pinning their hopes on supply constraint decisions which could take a long time to materialize.  The carbon market seems to be trading around pre-Doha uncertainty, nothing fundamentally has changed, trading volume is based around swaps and hedging with real new demand nonexistent in the face over continuous rolling supply increases through year end.

Friday, November 9, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Friday 9 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up on the day (+0.29%), better than the European markets (FTSE -0.27%, STOXX -0.00%, CAC -0.06%, DAX -0.39%, IBEX -0.48%) and the U.S. markets (DOW -0.94%, S&P -1.22%, NASDAQ -1.42%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed slightly below the main Warsaw equities index and in line with the other European and U.S. markets, closing down (-0.67%) for the day with gains in Westa, KSG Agro, Sadovaya Group and Kernel unable to carry the day.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (92,480 shares), Sadovaya Group (70,333 shares) and Kernel (66,036 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43429.42 (+0.29%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  674.15 (-0.67%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  95.75 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  64.35 (+0.78%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  11.17 (-3.71%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  62.60 (-2.72)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.36 (-0.97%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.64 (+1.22%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  15.75 (-1.56%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 12.40 (-0.80%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.57 (+0.78%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.10 (+2.80%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price fell for the second day to 0.96 EURO (-7.69%).  The market remains significantly long.  The carbon market seems to be trading around pre-Doha uncertainty and a bearish Eurozone outlook at this point.  Nothing fundamentally has changed, demand currently seems projected to be flat or diminishing while supply steadily increases through year end.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Thursday 8 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed down on the day (-0.68%), in line with red screens in the European markets (FTSE -1.58%, STOXX -2.24%, CAC -1.99%, DAX -1.96%, IBEX -2.26%) and the U.S. markets (DOW -2.36%, S&P -2.37%, NASDAQ -2.48%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed slightly above the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-0.36%) for the day with gains in Kernel and Astarta unable to offset losses across the rest of the Ukrainian names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (342,015 shares), Sadovaya Group (196,135 shares) and Kernel (75,501 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43304.29 (-0.68%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  678.67 (-0.36%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  95.75 (-0.26)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  63.85 (+1.35%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  11.60 (-5.84%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  64.35 (+0.55)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.51 (-3.36%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (-1.88%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  16.00 (-2.91%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.10 (-0.73%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 12.50 (-3.85%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.55 (-5.20%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.07 (-6.14%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price experienced a correction and fell to 1.04 EURO (-7.96%).  The market remains significantly long.  The carbon market seems to be trading around pre-Doha uncertainty at this point.  Mario Draghi made bearish macroeconomic statements about the Eurozone's future outlook which didn't add confidence.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Wednesday 7 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed flat on the day (+0.08%), generally similar to green screens in the European markets (FTSE +0.79%, STOXX +0.73%, CAC +0.87%, DAX +0.70%, IBEX +0.24%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +1.02%, S&P +0.79%, NASDAQ +0.41%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed slightly below the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-0.92%) for the day with gains in Agroton and Westa unable to offset white and red screens across the rest of the Ukrainian names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (273,563 shares), Kernel (103,146 shares) and Sadovaya Group (40,030 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43600.51 (+0.08%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  681.09 (-0.92%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  96.00 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  63.00 (-1.10%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  12.32 (+3.70%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  64.00 (unch)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  16.05 (-0.80%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.72 (-3.38%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  16.48 (-3.23%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.30 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 13.00 (-3.63%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.69 (-2.18%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.14 (+0.88%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price continued its support and improved slightly to 1.13 EURO (+3.67%).  The market remains significantly long.  The carbon market seems to be trading around pre-Doha uncertainty at this point.  If things go the same way as this time last year, one can expect positive initial headlines out of Doha meetings about the future of the Kyoto Protocol... causing prices to improve... followed by the inevitable realization that the headlines are only headlines without real substance... causing carbon prices to keep falling towards year end.  It is possible that Obama's victory on 6 November could open new opportunities for international carbon market penetration into America, however if this happened it probably would not enter the national dialogue until 2013 at earliest, and it's only speculation at this stage.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 6 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed flat on the day (-0.03%), slightly better than the European markets (FTSE -0.50%, STOXX -1.16%, CAC -1.26%, DAX -0.51%, IBEX -1.89%) and below the U.S. markets (DOW +0.15%, S&P +0.22%, NASDAQ +0.59%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, they performed in line with the main Warsaw equities index, closing flat (-0.23%) for the day with gains in Agroton, Westa, Astarta, Sadovaya and Milkiland unable to offset white and red screens across the rest of the Ukrainian names.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Westa International Scientific Group (148,095 shares), Kernel (94,135 shares) and Sadovaya Group (40,429 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 43567.60 (-0.03%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  687.39 (-0.23%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  96.00 (unch)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  63.70 (-0.93%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  11.88 (+6.55%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  64.00 (+0.79)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  16.18 (-3.11%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  12.13 (-0.82%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  17.03 (+0.47%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  27.30 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 13.49 (-1.24%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.75 (+0.73%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  1.13 (+4.63%)

Carbon Trading

ICE daily CER price continued to held its ground Monday and improved slightly to 1.09 EURO (+4.81%).  The market remains significantly long.  Energy commodities also rose on Monday, however the carbon market seems to be trading around pre-Doha uncertainty at this point.  If things go the same way as this time last year, one can expect positive initial headlines out of Doha meetings about the future of the Kyoto Protocol... causing prices to improve... followed by the inevitable realization that the headlines are only headlines without real substance... causing carbon prices to keep falling towards year end.  With carbon offsets representing the worst performing commodity market in recent years, the chance of the Kyoto Protocol's future existence as a market mechanism is starting to look slightly similar to the odds of Greece's future survival in the Eurozone.  But as the Japanese proverb says, "Hope is the last thing to die."  So let's see whether Kyoto nations can cooperate on the environment in 2012 and surprise skeptics.  If they wanted to wait until everyone was on the edge of their seats in the eleventh hour, mission accomplished.

Carbon Trading Videos

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