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Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 4 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.62%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.08%, STOXX +0.28%, CAC +0.26%, DAX +0.40%, IBEX -0.57%) and in contrast to red U.S. markets (DOW -0.46%, S&P -0.47%, NASDAQ -0.27%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.27%) for the day with gains in Kernel, Ovostar and Coal Energy driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Kernel (208,081 shares), Sadovaya Group (127,219 shares), Westa (80,491 shares) and Agroton (37,732 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45293.43 (+0.62%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.95 (+0.27%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  85.00 (+2.22%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  71.10 (+4.56%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.24 (-11.07%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.15 (-4.75%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  13.75 (unch)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.50 (-3.67%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.31 (-4.73%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  25.80 (-1.53%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.28 (+0.78%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.89 (-0.53%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.79 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another 8 cents on Monday, closing at 0.64 EURO (-11.11%).  Six days days into Doha and we're well into the expected deadlock.  At some point prior to the conference's end on 7 December - which is Pearl Harbor Day in the USA - the country representatives will try to announce some form of "agreement to agree" meant to demonstrate the carbon emissions from all the flights to the conference weren't wasted.  If this happens, there should be a bounce in the market before they return to their downward spiral.  There's a fundamental supply and demand issue.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There is no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down and international failure to agree on meaningful coordinated greenhouse gas reductions in the short or medium terms.  The trend seems to be for countries to focus on fixing their economies and discussing smaller localized emissions reductions efforts which could become linked (or not) in future times.

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