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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Thursday 13 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up (+0.43%), in line with green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.35%, STOXX +0.24%, CAC +0.01%, DAX +0.33%, IBEX +0.83%) and mixed U.S. markets (DOW -0.02%, S&P +0.04%, NASDAQ -0.28%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index underperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing down (-0.61%) with gains in Ovostar, Milkiland and Agroton unable to carry the day.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (653,935 shares), Westa (75,829 shares) and Kernel (45,978 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 46717.719 (+0.43%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  667.42 (-0.61%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  93.00 (+1.64%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  69.30 (-1.00%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.50 (+0.24%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  58.50 (-0.34%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.53 (-2.88%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (unch)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.26 (+0.42%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.40 (unch)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.97 (-1.01%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.71 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER continued its downwards march on Wednesday, closing at 0.43 EURO (-6.52%).  Trading desks across the world are adopting 3-step strategies:
  • Step 1:  Carbon slides falls towards zero after a toothless Kyoto Protocol Conference of Parties at the end of 2012.
  • Step 2:  ????????????
  • Step 3:  Profit.
You could see this coming, no surprises here.  Only the nagging question of how to solve step 2.  While there is no way to recover project costs at today's prices, from a trading perspective UN offsets represent cheap paper to squeeze Eurocents on swaps and options while there is still volatility in the market.  So this is what is happening now, not just in the private sector but governments also.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Wednesday 12 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed up (+1.36%), in line with green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.06%, STOXX +1.08%, CAC +0.94%, DAX +0.78%, IBEX +1.49%) and the U.S. markets (DOW +0.60%, S&P +0.65%, NASDAQ +1.18%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+1.90%) with gains in Agroton, Astarta, Kernel, IMC and Ovostar driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,032,879 shares), Kernel (65,154 shares) and Westa (60,615 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 46517.46 (+1.36%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  671.51 (+1.90%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  91.50 (+1.67%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  70.00 (+1.89%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.48 (+4.43%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  58.70 (+3.53%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.99 (+1.85%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (unch)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.20 (-0.70%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.40 (-0.26%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.99 (-4.33%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.71 (-2.74%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER went into a screaming tailspin on Tuesday, closing at 0.46 EURO (-24.59%).  We've gone through the predicted pattern of events:  Doha is finished with no wide international agreement, the UN offset market now exists mostly for PR until countries come together again to reduce the core problem of climate change in a unified manner sometime during the next 3 to 7 years... so now it's a race to the bottom.  You could see this coming so no surprises here, only disappointment.  There will be some trading action during the true-up period but it seems that national green tariffs and subsidized renewable energy measures/incentives from governments will need to overtake carbon credits as the driver to start new projects.  At least until such time that carbon credits become valuable enough to be relevant again.  Until that time, UN offsets are just cheap paper for traders to earn money on volume swaps and options.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 11 December

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.78%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.12%, STOXX -0.21%, CAC +0.18%, DAX +0.17%, IBEX -0.56%) and positive U.S. markets (DOW +0.11%, S&P +0.03%, NASDAQ +0.30%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index outperformed the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+1.42%) with gains in Sadovaya, Kernel, Coal Energy, KSG Agro and IMC driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Sadovaya Group (1,590,841 shares), Westa (395,473 shares), Ovostar (88,256 shares), Kernel (55,267 shares) and Agroton (34,714 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45892.07 (+0.78%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.96 (+1.42%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  90.00 (-4.10%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  68.70 (+4.09%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  8.12 (-8.04%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  56.70 (-1.31%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  15.70 (+1.36%)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  11.50 (+2.22%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.30 (-1.38%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  26.10 (unch)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 11.43 (+4.00%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  2.08 (-15.56%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.73 (-1.35%)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another cent on Monday, closing at 0.61 EURO (-1.611%).  Doha is finished and the predictable outcome occurred - no real developments just a weak poster board agreement with everyone kicking the can for hard discussions in 2015... which in market terms is another lifetime.  Kyoto Protocol still exists in the "true up period" when emitters engage in 2-3 years of horse trading to squeeze whatever Eurocents they can from the market before submitting their final emissions offset trading math to teacher.  There is the flimsy "Kyoto Protocol 2" which to be honest is nothing more than a weak and redundant version of the EU ETS, allowing the EU to keep receiving cheap credits into their regulatory system until the rest of the world catches up to their leadership on climate change issues.  But that will take some time and to be honest it could happen later than 2015.  In the meantime we've got a UN program mushing its way through on crutches - until a major development happens in the USA or China or Japan to create real demand for Kyoto offsets.  There is still action in the market but it's a race to the bottom as prices slip towards zero, the UN offset market is waiting for a serendipitous second chance before the inevitable happens.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Warsaw Market & Carbon Watch - Tuesday 4 November

Greetings from Kiev!  Here is this morning’s Ukrainian stock performance summary, from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the prior trading day's closing bell.  As a whole, the Warsaw Stock Exchange closed in positive territory (+0.62%), in line with mostly green screens across the main European markets (FTSE +0.08%, STOXX +0.28%, CAC +0.26%, DAX +0.40%, IBEX -0.57%) and in contrast to red U.S. markets (DOW -0.46%, S&P -0.47%, NASDAQ -0.27%).  Looking at Ukrainian equities in particular across the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their index tracked the main Warsaw equities index, closing up (+0.27%) for the day with gains in Kernel, Ovostar and Coal Energy driving the movement.  From a market depth standpoint, the highest trading volumes occurred in Kernel (208,081 shares), Sadovaya Group (127,219 shares), Westa (80,491 shares) and Agroton (37,732 shares).

For specific results kindly see the table below, prices denoted in Polish currency (Zlotys).  Cheers – Jon

WSE WIG Index (total return index for Warsaw Stock Exchange listed companies): 45293.43 (+0.62%)
WSE WIG-Ukraine Index (total return index for Ukrainian listed companies):  658.95 (+0.27%) 

Ovostar Union NV (OVO PW):  85.00 (+2.22%)
Kernel Holding SA (KER PW):  71.10 (+4.56%)
Agroton Public Limited (AGT PW):  9.24 (-11.07%)
Astarta Holding NV (AST PW):  57.15 (-4.75%)
Industrial Milk Co (IMC PW):  13.75 (unch)
KSG Agro SA (KSG PW):  10.50 (-3.67%)
Milkiland (MLK PW):  14.31 (-4.73%)
KDM Shipping Plc (KDM PW):  25.80 (-1.53%)
Coal Energy SA (CLE PW): 10.28 (+0.78%)
Sadovaya Group SA (SGR PW):  1.89 (-0.53%)
Westa Intl Scientific Group (WES PW):  0.79 (unch)

Carbon Trading

The ICE daily CER fell another 8 cents on Monday, closing at 0.64 EURO (-11.11%).  Six days days into Doha and we're well into the expected deadlock.  At some point prior to the conference's end on 7 December - which is Pearl Harbor Day in the USA - the country representatives will try to announce some form of "agreement to agree" meant to demonstrate the carbon emissions from all the flights to the conference weren't wasted.  If this happens, there should be a bounce in the market before they return to their downward spiral.  There's a fundamental supply and demand issue.  Cheap ERUs and CERs continue to flood the market particularly through JI's Track 1 back door, and this looks to accelerate for the rest of the year.  There is no demand spike for carbon credits to effectively offset supply growth, due to the global economic slow down and international failure to agree on meaningful coordinated greenhouse gas reductions in the short or medium terms.  The trend seems to be for countries to focus on fixing their economies and discussing smaller localized emissions reductions efforts which could become linked (or not) in future times.

Carbon Trading Videos

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